The Daily Ledger

S&P 500 +1.48% · NASDAQ +2.13% · DOW +1.32%

Stocks rallied broadly, with the Nasdaq up 2.13%, after President Trump said he had called off planned strikes on Iran and that Hormuz talks would begin Monday — a claim Iran's foreign ministry disputed even as WTI crude fell 5.44% and the 10-year Treasury yield eased 7 bp off last week's highest level since January 2025. A stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI (55.6 versus a 54.0 consensus) added a second tailwind, and memory and AI-chip stocks recovered from an early slide tied to new Chinese AI-model competition to close broadly higher.

President Trump said Saturday evening he would hold off a planned round of strikes on Iranian energy targets after Gulf-mediated talks produced the outline of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — hours after a Qatari LNG tanker was disabled by a projectile strike in the strait and Saudi Arabia's crown prince personally urged him against escalation. Trump's own wording left the halt conditional, Iran's defense minister pushed back within hours, and the week ahead brings AMD's and Eli Lilly's earnings alongside Friday's July jobs report — the first hard data test of last Wednesday's hawkish Fed dissent.

S&P 500 +1.0% · NASDAQ +1.6% · DOW +1.0%

Microsoft's $450 billion single-day value gain — the largest by any company on record — helped power the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow to a roughly 1%-1.6% weekly advance, but the same week delivered the Fed's most hawkish dissent since 2016, a 10-year Treasury yield at its highest since January 2025, and a reversal for Apple: down 7.3% Friday because the AI buildout it stayed out of is now bidding away the memory chips and fabrication capacity its own hardware needs. WTI crude fell more than 5% on the week as a shaky Iran ceasefire held for most of it, then cracked again Friday.

S&P 500 +0.70% · NASDAQ +1.00% · DOW +0.53%

Apple posted record fiscal third-quarter revenue and still guided below Wall Street, because the memory chips and advanced-node capacity it needs are being bid away by the same AI data-center buildout that just powered Amazon's best quarter in years. Reddit fell harder than either moved on a warning that Google's AI search is throttling its traffic, and the S&P 500 closed a turbulent July up 0.7% even as the 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 4.75%, its highest since January 2025.

S&P 500 +1.66% · NASDAQ +2.78% · DOW +1.19%

Microsoft's best day since October 2008 — up 15.5%, the largest one-day value gain by any company on record — answered yesterday's capex-funding question and powered the S&P 500's 1.7% recovery of Wednesday's Fed-driven slide, while Meta fell 8% on the wrong side of the same question. The bond market declined to celebrate: the 30-year held near a multidecade high as Q2 growth slowed to 1.5%.

S&P 500 −1.52% · NASDAQ −1.74% · DOW −2.19%

The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, but the most divided dissent since September 2016 sent the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007, and stocks took it badly — the Dow's worst session since April 2025 — as a missile exchange between Iran and U.S. forces pushed oil up 6.4% on the eve of Microsoft and Meta earnings.

S&P 500 +0.2% · NASDAQ −0.2% · DOW +1.0%

The chip and memory complex fell for a fourth straight session — AMD, Intel, Micron, and SanDisk all down sharply on a spillover rout from Korea — but Nvidia was little changed, letting Coca-Cola's earnings-driven record high carry the Dow even as the Nasdaq kept leaking value. Oil and yields fell for a third day into Wednesday's Fed decision, while July consumer confidence missed for a third straight month.

S&P 500 +0.02% · NASDAQ −0.18% · DOW +0.51%

Nvidia fell about 5% on a same-day double shock — a Chinese state-backed breakthrough in domestic chipmaking equipment and revived "circular financing" fears over a reported $250 billion OpenAI backstop — clearing the way for Apple to reclaim the title of world's most valuable public company. SanDisk, Seagate, and Micron slid alongside a blockbuster Shanghai IPO from Chinese memory rival CXMT, while a third straight day of the U.S.-Iran strike pause pulled oil and yields down and lifted the Dow.

Days after a Korea-led memory selloff knocked Micron and Broadcom on fears of an HBM glut, Samsung and SK Hynix answered over the weekend with roughly $950 billion in five-year supply commitments to Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom — even as the U.S. and Iran paused strikes on each other for a second straight day and a Houthi attack on two Saudi refineries pushed Brent back above $100. The week ahead stacks a Fed decision delivered without forward guidance, Chair Warsh's press conference, and four Magnificent Seven earnings reports directly on top of that unresolved scarcity question.

S&P 500 −0.6% · NASDAQ −2.1% · DOW −0.4%

A week that opened with AI-infrastructure "takers" signing $12.6 billion in fresh contracts closed with the market auditing who is actually scarce — taxing Alphabet and Tesla for their capex, then knocking Micron and Broadcom off the safe side of that same trade on a memory-supply scare, while Apple got paid for staying out of the race. The S&P and Nasdaq booked a second straight losing week (-0.6%, -2.1%) as Brent's run past $100 pulled the 10-year to its highest since January 2025 before both eased back Friday.

S&P 500 +0.05% · NASDAQ −0.64% · DOW +0.46%

Apple gained 3.5% for staying out of the AI capex race while a Korea-led memory rout kept punishing Micron and Broadcom. Fresh U.S. tariffs took effect overnight, but oil and yields pulled back from Thursday's highs, letting the Dow and S&P claw back ground even as the Nasdaq lagged.

S&P 500 −1.21% · NASDAQ −2.15% · DOW −0.97%

Alphabet's $205 billion capex guide and a 14% Tesla drawdown handed the market its worst session in a month — while $100 Brent and a 4.70% ten-year raised the price of every long-duration promise.

S&P 500 −0.14% · NASDAQ −0.57% · DOW −0.01%

Super Micro's $60 billion order haul made it the S&P 500's best stock while the index idled into Big Tech earnings — then Alphabet and Tesla opened the checkbook after the bell, and late trading marked both down.

S&P 500 +0.89% · NASDAQ +1.29% · DOW +0.74%

Micron's 12% surge put the AI trade back on offense and the Nasdaq up 1.29% — a rebound priced against $91 Brent, a two-thirds collapse in Hormuz transits, and the first earnings where the Gulf war shows up as a revenue line.

S&P 500 −0.19% · NASDAQ −0.05% · DOW −0.59%

A drifting tape — the S&P off 0.19% — hid the session's real news: $12.6 billion of fresh AI-infrastructure contracts at Hut 8 and IREN, signed two days before the hyperscalers defend the budgets that pay for them. Crude's ninth-night grind higher and a 10-year back above 4.6% capped everything else.

Hormuz traffic roughly halved with thousands of seafarers stranded, and Wednesday's Alphabet and Tesla prints will decide whether last week's AI de-rating was a correction or the start of a repricing.

S&P 500 −1.6% · NASDAQ −2.9% · DOW −0.9%

A Chinese model release and a rare IBM profit warning drove the Philadelphia semis index into a bear market, a reignited Gulf war repriced oil, and the S&P gave back 1.6% — the week the market started asking AI for receipts.

S&P 500 −1.0% · NASDAQ −1.4% · DOW −0.8%

Moonshot's Kimi K3 — open weights, frontier claims — pushed the chip complex into a bear market and handed the S&P 500 its first losing week in three, while a widening Gulf war put crude up nearly 12% on the week. The bond market, notably, declined to panic.

S&P 500 −0.51% · NASDAQ −1.47% · DOW −0.20%

TSMC printed a record quarter and fell; GE Aerospace beat and raised and fell harder; Alphabet shed roughly $200 billion on a reported model delay. The session taxed spending and slippage, not results — and after the bell, Netflix's guide-down joined the theme.

S&P 500 +0.38% · NASDAQ +0.62% · DOW +0.29%

A second soft inflation print in two days and a BlackRock blowout pushed stocks higher and the 10-year down to 4.55% — while a shooting war at Hormuz was priced at 26 cents on a barrel of WTI. PayPal jumped 17% on a reported $53 billion take-private bid; SpaceX traded below its IPO price for the first time.

S&P 500 +0.4% · NASDAQ +0.9% · DOW +0.02%

A 3.5% June CPI took a July hike mostly off the table and bought the tape a relief rally — but the sharper signal was IBM's worst day on record: the enterprise IT dollar is being re-routed from software to the AI hardware underneath it.

S&P 500 −0.79% · NASDAQ −1.55% · DOW −0.26%

Washington reimposed its blockade of Iranian shipping and demanded 20% of every cargo transiting Hormuz — Brent jumped 9.6% while a memory-chip rout took the Nasdaq down 1.55%. Gold fell with stocks: the market read the day as an inflation shock, not a reason to hide.

The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and CENTCOM answered with its heaviest strike wave of the war, while Tuesday packs June CPI, five money-center banks, and Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony into a single morning — asked of a tape sitting about half a percent from its record.

S&P 500 +1.2% · NASDAQ +1.7% · DOW −0.5%

Samsung's record quarter got sold, Meta's plan to charge for compute got its best week since early 2024, and SK Hynix cleared the largest-ever U.S. listing by a foreign company at a 14% premium — the week the market stopped paying for AI evidence and started grading AI business models. The S&P added 1.2%.

S&P 500 +0.42% · NASDAQ +0.29% · DOW +0.29%

SK Hynix's $26.5 billion Nasdaq debut — the largest U.S. listing ever by a foreign issuer — closed 13% above pricing and lifted the memory incumbents it was supposed to threaten. The S&P added 0.4% to cap a 1.2% week while $71 crude kept pricing a shooting war at almost nothing.